As I work through another planning cycle, the ritual remains the same: the spreadsheet opens, the roadmap is prioritized, and we start the negotiation for more "heads." In my world, and likely yours, the engineer has always been the fundamental unit of progress. If we want to move faster, we hire more of them. But this year, the math feels... off. I’m asking myself - do I really need a new hire for this or do I just need a larger token budget? We are moving away from a world of Fixed Labor and into a world of Variable Compute. When you hire a Senior Engineer, you’re buying a long-term asset. You’re also buying a 6-month onboarding lag, a management overhead, and a permanent line item on the P&L. When you "hire" tokens you’re buying instant, fractional capacity. If your engineers are telling you they can automate 30% of the "toil" using a custom-tuned model, the traditional argument for that extra engineer disappears. We are moving from mere manageme...
So far in my career, our value as leaders was measured by how well we manage the machine - optimizing for velocity, smoothing out team dynamics, and ensuring predictable delivery of business goals. Now, the engine of that machine is changing. For the past few months a part of me is feeling some existential dread - with AI advancing so quickly the fundamental engine of the machine is changing. A lot of the discussion has been on 10x or 100x engineers, but what is this going to mean for Engineering Managers? Do we still need the role? If we do, what does an Engineering Manager in the future look like? The future - maybe I mean now… I think it's too early to declare the death of the manager but I am ready to place a few definitive bets on changes that are coming. Firstly Engineering Managers who don’t stay on top of AI developments will become obsolete. The 'wait and see' approach has become a 'wait and become obsolete' strategy. Within a performance cycle or two I p...